Drum roll. Suspense. He murdered himself!

The media–both liberal and conservative–have been trying to make a good conspiracy story out of this, but it shows a basic misunderstanding of probabilities. Just because someone’s hyoidal bone is more likely to break if someone is murdered does not rule out suicide. It misses the point. More likely does not mean always. In some data the probability of someone hanging themselves breaking their hyoidal bone is 20-40 does not mean it can never happen. In fact, it happens two to four times out of 10. That data ignores that breaking that bone is more likely if you are older (66) and overweight which he was so that increases the probability.

Why the conspiracy theories? Epstein was tied to Trump and/or Clinton. Depending on the slant of that particular media reporting, they mention their foe’s name first. Also, everyone focuses that Epstein could name powerful people–Prince Andrew and others–so he had to be killed.

Actually if I had been in Esptein’s position, I would have killed myself, too. It would have been an easy call. After living a life of luxury, travel, and sex on demand the prospect of spending my remaining days in a squalid jail would be daunting. There was some chance he could get sprung on a technicality, but it would have been a year before the trial and then the appeals. The recent release of information about his activities would make his prospects of ever resuming that life impossible. Obviously his best days were behind him.

Had he gotten the bail terms he wanted of house arrest in his mansion, he could have lived in luxury that year. If court decisions turned against him, he could have easily offed himself once appeals were refused.

So how did it happen? Here I dip into speculation without any facts. My view is either the guards were incompetent or turned a blind eye. In Epstein’s case money was no longer of value to him, so why not try to bribe the guards to merely play incompetent. All he would need to do is find a way to pass the money to them. For example, that is something his recently formed trust could do surreptitiously. The worst outcome for the guards? They are fired for incompetence. I doubt those jobs are all that great. Money talks.

The sad thing about the suicide is that Epstein’s victims never get their day in court. However, the greatest outrage I see seems to be his lawyers. They seem to be doing everything they can to run up their billable hours from the golden goose. Would they have expressed such outrage if Epstein were an ordinary citizen? Doubt it.