As the calendar races towards the appropriate Halloween date for Brexit, this Yank watches with a certain fascination how it will all turn out. The analyst in me would be fascinated to watch a no-deal Brexit in which the wheels spin off the economy. But I have British friends and an affinity for the UK–think Doc Martin and Downton Abbey–so I hate to wish ill on friends.

The good news is it may not turn out as bad as that even if Parliament’s effort to stymie a no-deal Brexit fails! Here are the assumptions supporting my analysis:

• Boris John is both a buffoon and Prime Minister. [How did you Tories allow that to happen?]
• He is unprincipled.
• He is by far smarter than at least one G-7 head of state we know.
• He has chubby fingers, but unlike Prince Andrew this is not going to spare him facing the consequences of his actions.
• His American mother doesn’t insure a reincarnation of Winston Churchill.
• He can’t afford a comb!

BoJo promises to remove the Irish backstop! He is smart enough to know its not going to happen. What he is looking for is anything that allows him to claim success (thinking of a certain US President). It will be some very cosmetic change to Theresa May’s plan–almost linguistic in nature. It will be so minor that many will argue there was no real change. Maybe it will become a “stop back” or a “fall back” or a “pickle tickle.” He then claims success and moves on.

The temporary backstop really only mattered became the Tories needed the few votes of the DUP to have the barest majority in Parliament. It is ironic that the Tories needed the vote of a party that continues to live in the 19th Century. Had a more moderate party provided the necessary votes, history would have been different and Brexit would have been delivered. A second reason it mattered was to give the hard Brexiteers a hammer with which to slam Theresa May.

So BoJo gets Brexit and moves on to announce his “very exciting agenda” in the Queen’s speech. [The word “very” should be banned by anyone with an elementary education. I would love to see the Queen read one of Trump’s speeches to Congress.]

Lest the Tories pop the champagne too early, the full agreement has never been fully vetted. This is a case of focus bias when attention is drawn off something equally heinous. As the May agreement + cosmetic word change begins to be implemented, there are many turds that will be found in that punch bowl. Fishing rights would be one. Also, some of the hard Brexiteers will be dismayed when they realize nothing really his changed.

We haven’t talked about the American trade agreement that will make Brexit worthwhile. My next posting will give you my thoughts on that. It ain’t going to be pretty and may even undermine the logic for Brexit in the first place.

Let me close with one observation that I cannot resist tweaking my British friends. History is replete with examples of the expression “perfidious Albion.” That has to change to “fickle Albion.” You didn’t want to be in the Common Market, then you did. DeGaulle blocked that. Finally after years of waiting you get in, and now want out. Is this your final answer?