Vladimir Putin must be rubbing his hands with glee over the last few days as two of the greatest democracies are turning themselves into banana republics. In part this can probably be blamed on Russian information operations that has played to the fears of the established elites that they will lose their dominance. Right now these democracies, the United States and United Kingdom, are anything but united.

Boris Johnson in his few weeks as Prime Minister has accomplished the impossible–making former PM Theresa May appear Churchillian by comparison. I always thought Brits tended to be super polite, but Johnson’s boorish behavior led even his own sister to denounce. Previously Johnson’s brother had rejected him as untrustworthy. In BoJo’s mind anyone against him is a traitor and wants to surrender the country. It all reads like a novel of palace infighting from the Tudor period. If the Brits are lucky, his reign will be mercifully short.

Despite his bluster he will not do a no deal Brexit. Unlike his cognitively impaired American parallel, he is smart enough to know that would be a disaster. In addition, to the disruptions, re-imposition of a hard border in Ireland dooms any chance of the US trade agreement, he is counting on. I think ultimately he will adopt Theresa May’s agreement with a fancy name for the backstop, something like the Irish Co-Prosperity Zone. Lacking any majority in Parliament, he no longer needs the perfidious DUP and vile Arlene Foster. The odds that the next election will produce a slender majority that depends on the assistance of the DUP are mathematically slight.

Of course, everyone forgets the agreement only starts the process of disengagement from the EU. Many details will need to be negotiated. It is then that the warts will appear in the exit scenario and they will land on BoJo’s watch.

As for Donald Trump, he too will continue his boorish behavior and the supine GOP party will continue to smile about it. I need not describe further the depths to which Trump descends on a daily basis. [Are he and BoJo in a limbo contest to see who will go the lowest?] Now Trump says the whistle blower is a spy who should be executed. Actually what the whistle blower did was commendable and according to long articulated procedures. The purpose of the Whistle Blower Act was to discourage unprecedented press leaks.

What is truly staggering is the ire the GOP developed about Bill Clinton having sex with a willing young intern. To them this is a sin that deserved impeachment. Asking another country’s assistance to bring down a political opponent via political extortion is a nothing burger?

Trump will be impeached, but not removed from office. The American people will decide in a year whether he should be reelected. The tradition of a two-term Presidency is so strong that it will be hard to overcome. I suspect whether or not he is reelected depends on events during the next year that are not yet on our scope.