As I predicted in an earlier post, Boris Johnson got a new BREXIT agreement that passed Parliament. I also predicted he would do so by selling out the Northern Ireland Unionist Party, the DUP. The BREXIT agreement comfortably passed Parliament in a second reading, but then BoJo lost it when Parliament asked for more than 3 days to study and debate the complicated agreement before final passage. Why the speed? It is typical behavior when a salesman tries to sell a seriously flawed used car. Evidently there are several stinkers in the agreement that would become evident under an extended review. So BoJo pulled back the bill and renewed his call for new elections. This time the opposition parties finally agreed.
The problem is there is universal distrust of Boris Johnson, even by his political allies. He has proved his duplicity again and again by opposing Theresa May’s agreement over the backstop and then negotiating a new one that violates a key red line of a border now the Irish Channel that she opposed. Beyond stabbing Theresa May, he also stuck it to the Northern Irish DUP, whose members are hopping mad at the betrayal. Any who deal with him should beware to check your wallet after dealing with him.
The upcoming elections might be fairly predicable. Obviously the Tories will be able to demonize Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn enough so he cannot possibly win. If Corbyn ever quits as party head, the Tories probably would need to bribe him to stay. With Corbin at the head, there is no meaningful alternative to the Tories.
There are three wrinkles that could upset this election scenario. First, there is the Brexit party headed by the despicable Nigel Farage who had rejected the agreement. If BoJo refuses Farage’s offer to cooperate in the elections, that could draw enough votes from the Tories that they would be defeated in otherwise safe seats. Cooperation would be difficult, however, because how would he deal with Farage?
Second, believe it or not, Donald Trump dropped another turd in the punch bowl. On Farage’s radio show he praised Johnson and dumped on Corbyn. Considering the anti-Trumpers in the UK, that will not be a great endorsement. But even better, Trump said BoJo would have to dump his “great agreement” if he ever wanted a trade agreement with the US. That was the thing the BREXIT advocates claim is the benefit from the agreement. [Bear in mind some of my earlier posts that the US Trade Agreement will not be the panacea they claim.]
Ponder that a second. BoJo is campaigning on that Brexit deal. With Trump’s dissatisfaction to his agreement, what does he do? Say Trump is correct and push for a no-deal Brexit. Voters are already fearful that Johnson might win and trash his own agreement. Any denials will be treated with a big bag of salt given his unreliability. Also, does this make BoJo look like Trump’s poodle? Or does Johnson tell Trump to stuff it and risk Trump throwing more red meat to Farage.
Third, what message is Putin pushing in his propaganda? He clearly supported the original BREXIT referendum because it weakened NATO. But now that Putin has got what he wanted. Does he really want a national consensus to develop in favor of Brexit? Might he benefit more by keeping the electorate sharply polarized?
The next few weeks will be extremely interesting. Although a Tory victory seem more likely than not, the wrinkles I mentioned above could produce another hung Parliament. If so, where do we go from here? A second referendum?